Volatility of Bitcoin from 2010 to 2015 2010: US$0.07 to $0.29 (314% increase) 2011: US$0.29 to US$6.18 (2031% increase) 2012: US$6.18 to US$13.41 (117% increase) 2013: US$13.41 to US$817 (2882% increase) 2015: US$314 to US$431 (37% increase)

Since its birth in 2008, financial experts and institutional investors have criticized the viability of Bitcoin as an independent currency, due to its highly unstable volatility rate.

According to data provided by the Bitcoin Volatility Index, however, the volatility of bitcoin price against major currencies such as US Dollars have declined significantly since 2010. More importantly, the rate of volatility has decreased at a consistent pace, dropping at an average rate of 25% per year.

At the beginning of 2011, the standard deviation of daily returns (volatility rate) recorded around 8.5%. Towards the end of the year, the volatility rate of bitcoin measured by the standard deviation of daily returns in trading recorded 5.36%.

At the end of 2012, the volatility rate of bitcoin recorded a significantly lower 1.57%, showing a staggering 71% decline in volatility since the past year.

As the volatility continued its declining trend, Bitcoin surpassed the growth rate of both emerging market and dominant major currencies including Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit, US Dollars and Pound Sterling.

2010: US$0.07 to $0.29 (314% increase)
2011: US$0.29 to US$6.18
(2031% increase)
2012: US$6.18 to US$13.41
(117% increase)
2013: US$13.41 to US$817
(2882% increase)
2015: US$314 to US$431 (37% increase)

Bitcoin has consistently outperformed all of the world’s reserve currencies while maintaining a declining volatility trend over the past five years.

According to San Francisco-based digital currencies focused investment firm Pantera Capital, one-year volatility reached its all-time low in 2015, reaching around 52% in July and dropping to below 50% in November and December.

Furthermore, unstable reserve currencies such as the Russian Ruble had a higher volatility rate as of July 2015, with over 50% 30-day annualized volatility.

Based on the chart provided by Pantera Capital, Bitcoin has consistently maintained a low volatility rate since January of 2015, outperforming precious metals, assets, and currencies including crude oil and gold,

While gold has decreased by around 11% amid the federal reserve’s announcement of new interest rates implementation, the price of bitcoin has increased to around US$430.

“We think we are in a structural bear market, not only in gold, but across the commodity complex, as the individual commodity stories are reinforcing to one another, creating a negative feedback loop,” saidJeffrey Currie, global head of Commodities Research in the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Division.

Currie further stated in an interview that gold, as a store of value has become less significant over the past few years. He explained that the number of individuals and businesses using gold as assets or trades have substantially decreased.

“With the more positive outlook on the dollar, and with debasement risk starting to fade, the demand to use gold as a diversifying asset against the U.S. dollar becomes less and less important.”

Although investors and traders have always criticized bitcoin for being too volatile as an asset or as an independent digital currency, the volatility rate of bitcoin has declined at a rapid pace since 2011. Because of the stability of bitcoin price in the past year, an increasing number of traders and investors in the public markets are purchasing Bitcoin ETFs – like Bitcoin Investment Trust – as a major part of their investment portfolio.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis 03-01-2016

As per my yesterday prediction Buy bitcoin @ $425 and it's been Low @$422 and today is  $431 a profit of $5 is there if you have a holding power it could be more profitable.....ONLY buy Bitcoins

Volatility of Bitcoin Price Consistently Declined Since 2010

Bitcoin Price Analysis achieved  $425

Bitcoin's birthday! On 3rd January 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto mined the Genesis Block containing the first 50 bitcoins. Happy Genesis Day!

Bitcoin's birthday! On 3rd January 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto mined the Genesis Block containing the first 50 bitcoins. Happy Genesis Day!

Bitcoin achieves wider trading adoption in 2015, what will 2016 bring for the cryptocurrency?

It is no secret the goals of the growing Bitcoin industry to achieve mainstream adoption for the decentralized non-governmental backed digital currency. To a certain degree, the achievements are very real for Bitcoin in its brief history, and 2015 was a year of more adoption and more stability in price after a very volatile 2014, which cased many financial professionals to question Bitcoin’s future as a global payment currency if such parabolic swings will be the norm.

2015 could be seen as another important pivot point for greater adoption and legitimacy in Bitcoin’s quest to be treated as an alternative alongside the established currency order and taken seriously as a liquid tradable commodity instrument. Will the system for using, trading and swapping Bitcoin from industry service providers continue to innovate to make Bitcoin a real viable alternative global currency? Challenges remain and the future is always uncertain, but in the following post we will look back at 2015’s Bitcoin news as it relates to FX and the digital currency industry.

in LeapRate’s 2014 Bitcoin review we marked the influx of VC backed Bitcoin ventures and more mainstream acceptance from establishment finance as Bloomberg started to integrate the digital currency within its financial terminals as well as Google adding the Bitcoin currency code to its exchange search calculator. Moreover, 2014 saw regulatory agencies start to come out with clearer stances towards digital currency law.

All of the aforementioned developments continued into 2015. However, what we did not see was the headline grabbing wild price swings which many assumed would have to be smoothed over before any further serious growth and adoption of the block-chain enabled digital currency would take place. Overall, Bitcoin saw a steady price of around 1 XBT to $250 USD for most of 2015… than in late October the price spiked above $300 peaking at around $475 for the year to now settle at $435 to 1 Bitcoin to begin 2016. See below the Bitcoin 2015 price chart as well as the most popular Bitcoin posts from 2015 covered on LeapRate.

Bitcoin saw a late rise in Q4 to finish 2015, how the currency trades and is correlated is still unpredictable. Many thought it would be treated as a sort of digital gold. However, Bitcoin more closely correlated with the U.S. Dollar’s strength late in 2015. Bitcoin’s value still seems internally based for now with a lot of headline risk.

January started off with Forex brokers cutting leverage on Bitcoin trading the price plunged 33% in the wake of the SNB EUR/CHF shock, brokers took no chances on assets prone to sudden shocks. Moreover in January, New York based Bitcoin platform Coinsetter offering up to $500 no-deposit credit to new users, similar to brokers on traditional assets, Coinsetter, a platform for active Bitcoin trading was making their appeal to retail traders to trade Bitcoin.

Also in January, Coinbase Bitcoin wallet and exchange gained a record $75 million in funding, while becoming the first legal Bitcoin trading exchange recognized in the U.S. Finally noteworthy, Finland based Forex broker FinFX partnered with FinCCX to launch a Finland based Bitcoin exchange. February saw Coinsetter add algo strategies to Bitcoin trading with Tradewave, Australia based Independent Reserve added to global Bitcoin benchmark, and MGT Capital Investments merge with Bitcoin SEF and index firm Tera Group. To round out Q1 2015, in March popular Bitcoin payment processor BitPay partnered with NETELLER merchants for Bitcoin integration.

Q2 2015 began in April as Xapo and other Bitcoin industry participants responded to the revised BitLicense proposal. Further in April, we covered a WSJ piece which notedinstitutional trading firms more open to becoming exposed to “cryptocurrencies,” some of the firms, which trade their own money say they see potential for big profits in trading Bitcoin. It was a welcoming development for Bitcoin as a real tradable currency as some see trading firms can help reduce wild volatility in the Bitcoin market.

April was a busy month as we also reported Australia’s central bank deciding not to regulate Bitcoin, Coinsetterexpanding its presence further across North America with its acquisition of Canada’s CAVIRTEX, and Russia’s lukewarm attitude for now towards Bitcoin as Russian courts began to assess appeal on blocking of Bitcoin websites. Finally in April, industry heavyweight Coinbase officially opened for business in the UK and rival exchange CEX.IO opened for business in the U.S.

Q2 continued when in May a Bitcoin domain name BTC.com was acquired for $1 million USD, showing Bitcoin’s potential is no joke with folks willing to pony up $1 million to just acquire a high quality Bitcoin related domain name. Further in May, we covered when the NYSE got into the Bitcoin act as The New York Stock Exchange officially launched a Bitcoin Index to provide additional standardization and benchmarks to the Bitcoin price. Rounding out May, San Francisco based Bitcoin exchange Kraken launched leveraged margin Bitcoin trading up to 3:1, Zurich based ECUREX became the first Bitcoin trading platform fully compliant with Swiss Banking Act and Coinsetter and Shift Forex released Bitbroker, a Bitcoin liquidity solution for the Forex trading industry.

Expansion moves continued with summer beginning as Bitcoin exchange Kraken opened in Canadawith the brand Vogogo and Australian based bank Westpac invested in Bitcoin exchange Coinbase. Further headlines in the summer saw Bitcoin exchange trading wars heat up as Bitcoin traders on Coinsetter could now leverage up to 5x, following the move by Kraken in May, also Bitcoin exchange itBit introduced a ‘Global OTC Agency Trading Desk’ focusing on large orders and institutional Bitcoin trading business.

July saw U.S. prosecutors charge Coin.mx executives for operating illegal Bitcoin exchange, showing America’s no-nonsense approach to any sort of Bitcoin grey area or scams. Authorities will be vigilant as they let the digital currency operate legally under traditional investment regulation. In the dog days of summer, we reported in August exclusively that technical problems led to a number of trading outages on some of the more popular Bitcoin exchange platforms which led to a mini flash-crash and recovery in Bitcoin prices within a 36 hours time frame. According to Coinsetter CEO Jaron Lukasiewicz, he stated: “We are seeing a shift in where bitcoin trading takes place towards exchanges with more robust technology.”

A guest post in August courtesy of Marco Streng, CEO and Co-founder of Genesis Mining stated 5 reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin. (while he meant the digital currency industry in general, subsequently his prediction has rang true in the short-term for the Bitcoin price, as it rallied strong to end 2015). One of the five reasons he stated is below is in terms of VC capital:

In 2012, there was only $2 million in venture capital invested into Bitcoin startups. In 2013, there was $95 million. And in 2014 alone there was almost $350 million. To put it into perspective, internet startups had only $250 million in venture capital in 1996. We have already exceeded this as an industry and the grand total of investments is currently at $550 million into Bitcoin startups. All this in just a matter of a few years!

August further saw Cyprus based Forex broker FxNet add Bitcoin CFD to its lineup of trading instruments, is this a trend other retail oriented Forex broker will pick up on? Seems like it will only be a matter of time until most of the best-of-breed brokers get involved with providing a tradable margin instrument on Bitcoin.

In September, we reported as Coinbase again followed in the footsteps of rival exchange Kraken with Coinbase expanding to Canada for Bitcoin trading and exchange services. In a pretty rare move still, we also saw Forex broker FXPRIMUS team up with BitPay to now accept account deposits via Bitcoin. Within the United States regulated trading apparatus we reported when the CFTC issued an order of temporary registration as a SEF to Bitcoin firm LedgerX, who is looking to clear options on Bitcoin. On the other end of the regulation spectrum, The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September issued an order filing and simultaneously settling charges against Coinflip, Inc. for illegal operating a facility for the trading of Bitcoin derivatives but not registering the facility as a Swap Execution Facility or Designated Contract Market, as required. Within the case, we have a clearer understanding of the law as financially Bitcoin will be treated as a commodity such as Silver, Gold, Corn, or Oil under current regulation.

Fall continued with Bitcoin agency brokerage and exchangeitBit allowing for verified client higher withdrawal limits up-to $300k, showing the increased significant amount of serious trading taking place in 2015. Other headlines saw the New York DFS grant a charter to Bitcoin exchange Gemini under the newly formulated BitLicense regulation, European Court of Justice ruled that Bitcoin exchanges are exempt from VAT, and BTCC, formerly known as BTCChina, officially announced the launch of Pro Exchange, a platform with advanced features for the margin leveraged (up to 20:1) trading of Bitcoin.

We finished 2015 Bitcoin headlines with the following news:

Volatility pushes Bitcoin into Top 3 traded commodity products at Plus500Bitcoin venue Coinbase Exchange introduces volume rebatesIs Craig Wright the real Satoshi Nakamoto? Australia police raid home of supposed Bitcoin creatorBitcoin’s wild weekend: Bitcoin prices rise and then drop more than 10% Saturday after topping $475 (yearly high)ASIC and Bitcoin Group (a Bitcoin mining company) continue to do go back and forth with another rescheduled planned IPO

2015, while not capturing as much mainstream news as 2014 due to lack of crazy price swings (a good thing), can be viewed as further enhancing the digital currency’s credibility. While VC dollars pouring into the Bitcoin currency sector in 2014 was a major theme, we believe that 2015 can be seen as the turning point for professional venues participating in the business of the active trading of Bitcoin. With many prop groups getting into trading Bitcoin as noted in the review and Bitcoin exchanges doing battle on technology of platforms, fees, rebates and professional liquidity, we are just seeing the beginning of active professional Bitcoin trading, the business which has unique characteristics in its own right. How professional Bitcoin trading institutionally and at the retail level advances in 2016 will be something to watch.

As always, it is interesting as well as to document the continued themes of mainstream payment adoption and the swap and exchange services of Bitcoin. The continued growth, stability, and sophistication of Bitcoin wallets, online transfer platforms from Bitcoin exchanges to traditional currency and continued proliferation of hard cash Bitcoin based ATMs is also noteworthy. While having its own unique niche as a digital currency based commodity, Bitcoin might never get complete mainstream adaption from your average Joe, that may not be a good goal anyways. However, as long as the digital currency is placed as an alternative method of payment, holds a stable value as a currency and the infrastructure around Bitcoin makes it useful as an everyday currency, Bitcoin can still thrive as a preeminent digital based alternative currency and store of value. As noted, 2016 will be quite interesting to see more developments unfold. LeapRate in 2016 will be further covering detailed information on the platforms and venues involved in the active trading of Bitcoin. Be sure to stay tuned to LeapRate in 2016 as the new trading year begins.

Why Bitcoin Price Changes?

Both Bitcoin buyers and sellers attention on the market is always focused on the cryptocurrencyprice. This is a defining factor that empowers traders to makes decisions on whether to buy or sell Bitcoins. Every day, experts make forecasts about the price based on fundamental or technicalanalysis and market players are closely following any news that may affect the price and value of BitcoinCT r:  10. In this article we will try to understand what factors affect the growth or decline of Bitcoin price rates. But first, let us recall what represents the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has value for several reasons:

Bitcoin is money and an alternative to fiat money. Bitcoin has all the features that are inherent in money - it is divisible, durable, recognizable and most importantly, it is accepted as a payment. Unlike fiat money or gold, Bitcoin has no physical embodiments and is not backed by physical items but rather it has a mathematical and technical basis.People trust in this currency and this trust is increasing.Bitcoin is already a common means of payment among its users, and its acceptance ia spreading fast too.The cost of Bitcoin is determined by its users, and only by them.Factors that affect the price

Now let's try to find out what factors affect the growth of the Bitcoin price. The price of any currency or commodity, as it is known, is determined by supply and demand.

The first factor that affects the price of Bitcoin, in our opinion, is its limitations, both in quantity and in production time. The total number of Bitcoins has long been known – only 21 million. Thus, the time at which newly created or mined Bitcoins will be available is predictable, and the production rate is decreasing. This factor has a positive impact on Bitcoin and contributes to its growth.

The second factor is the belief in the price of Bitcoin rising to unlimited levels: $ 10,000, $ 1,000,000 and above.

The third factor is the use of Bitcoin as a payment system to transfer money from one point to another.

The fourth factor is the trust of the people. In recent years, more and more people are interested in cryptocurrency and tend to buy it. More and more companies and merchants accept Bitcoin as a means of payment. This factor also contributes to the growth of Bitcoin.

The fifth factor is the recognition of Bitcoin as a means of payment and investment in it by different governments. As well as growing legal acceptance, regulation and the acquiring of official status in countries worldwide.

The sixth factor contributing to the strengthening of Bitcoin’s price is its independence from the macroeconomic indicators of the leading countries of the world. Their national currencies are fluctuating due to the quality of state statistics, but such news has almost no effect on the Bitcoin price.

Now let us consider the factors that actually do affect the price of Bitсoin and may contribute to its decrease. We all know that there is no absolutely reliable currency in the world. So why are we witnessing periodic Bitcoin price decline in the market?

Bitcoin is the the same financial instrument on the currency marketthere all other currencies,stocks, bonds, etc. In other words, it is a commodity that has always been sold and bought. Since the advent of Bitcoin it has proven to be reliable, but that does not change its exposure to fluctuations that are inherent in the foreign exchange market. Bitcoin price fluctuations may be caused by searches for the optimal price that are done between buyers and sellers.Handling Bitcoin exchanges is limited and does not require large amounts of money so it has no major influence on the Bitcoin price. It is enough for one buyer to purchase a large number of Bitcoins to make the market react instantly by increasing prices. Or, conversely, a large volume of sold Bitcoins will cause a sharp decline in its price.Change in the price of Bitcoin depends on credibility from the people. Any negative information about Bitcoin could trigger a sharp decline in its price.Bitcoin has many other competitors from the cryptocurrency family. These cryptocurrency’s success on the stock exchange and the growth of their value could affect the price of Bitcoin.

We asked Ivan Tello from Argentina.  He is a technical analyst specializing in the Elliott Wave Principle at ruartereports.com. He replied as follows:

“The price of Bitcoin is seesawed by human psychology, by people who believe that in the future it will be worth more or that the morning news will affect it negatively.

The price goes up and down because of an ongoing struggle between two tireless forces, the bulls and the bears. People who need the price to climb to win versus people who need it to come down to win, people who believe that Bitcoin is cheap or expensive. Technical analysis does not explain, nor study, nor analyze the reasons why the price goes up or down, that is what journalists do, they attach a name, a title, so people can understand the reasons why the price fluctuates, but basically they do not know why it increased or decreased, or if news leaked before it was published.

They are players that move the price based on your needs and your psychology. These actions do leave marks and those marks are studied by technical analysts, who operate on the tracks left.

People who think that oil rises because it is a scarce commodity or that gold rises because the oil will disappear in a moment, they are people who do not add anything to the market.

The price goes up because it should be up and down because it should be down. Psychology of the masses.”

The question of Bitcoin price changes will always be the focus of investors and ordinary people. What other factors affect the price of Bitcoin? This question remains open.

Are you interested in bitcoin? Find it in our cryptocurrencies ratings and learn more.

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Bitcoin Predictions For 2016: The Year of the Monkey

Bitcoin finally had a successful comeback towards the end of 2015, declared by many as the “Year of the Blockchain.” With all the hype surrounding Bitcoin and the blockchain during 2015,there has been much speculation towards next year’s approach to cryptocurrency. As 2014 was filled with scandal, Altcoins, and ending up being the worst global currency of that year. 

The New Year is approaching, and many are wondering what to expect from the fun and volatile world of Bitcoin. 2015 has proven well for the digital currency, showing remarkably better performance than in 2014. Bloomberg reported the virtual money was “the world’s worst-performing currency in 2014, losing more than 57 percent of its value against the dollar.” But now the finance publication says in 2015 that “Bitcoin has won,” and “Apple did not.” The currency’s value has gained close to 40% they report and seem to believe it may be due to “a technological escape route from government’s snooping into our financial affairs.” 

Bloomberg is not the only one reporting Bitcoin’s fantastic year. SG Kinsman reveals via a blog on Medium that “Bitcoin has been the world’s strongest currency in 2015,” outperforming the Israeli Shekel, U.S. Dollar, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen. Kinsman explains that the digital currency may have been a strong asset class this year as well saying, “there’s an argument to be made that Bitcoin is the top performing asset in 2015.”

Banks have also shown strong affection towards the technology behind Bitcoin this year. Just before the beginning of 2016, forty two very large scale finance institutions are betting on the blockchain. Determined to harness the energy of the digital money without the currency privatized distributed ledgers have been all the rage over the course of 2015. Just as Altcoins took the limelight the year before, permissioned blockchain concepts seemed to pop up shortly after. Many Bitcoin enthusiasts have deemed thesecentralized blockchains as a failure, and the new “cryptographic ledger only” fascination doesn’t give a clairvoyant view of Bitcoin’s future. Many believe that looking at the blockchain and ignoring Bitcoin is the wrong attitude to hold towards this new currency. The Satoshi Nakamoto Institute’s Daniel Krawisz says:

“A permissioned blockchain is an oxymoron. The whole reason that the blockchain was invented is to make Bitcoin a decentralized and anonymous system in which everyone can come to the same arbitrary consensus about the history of Bitcoin.”  

Some people have viewed all the energy towards permissioned ledgers as a positive sign for Bitcoin, though. The price has rebounded quite well in the last three months of 2015, and many people have predicted certain prices for the upcoming new year. People have been speculating the digital currencies price for quite some time trying to forecast the value of Bitcoin in 2016. For years now it has been suggested by a bunch of people that the virtual money’s price will gain quadruple digits or more this coming year. Some past predictions have been very high at $7600-$10,000 USD.

However, predictions today are far more conservative. Wedbush Securities has predicted the price to be in the $600 range for its 2016 12-month projections. Co-Founder of the Jersey-Based Global Advisors, Daniel Masters, believes the price will touch2013 price highs again. Masters thinks the price could make it to $4,400 by 2017 and has a positive feeling about the currency’s value.

CEO of the Bitcoin exchange giant, BTCC, Bobby Lee believes the price will also be exceedingly high over the course of next year. Lee thinks the value could increase after the reward halving, possibly reaching prices as high as $3,500 by next summer. The BTCC exchange operator says, “Today the worth of bitcoin is $1 per capita in the world (population),” Lee said, referring to the value of all the bitcoins in circulation, around $6.5 billion. “For such an innovative, decentralized digital asset, I say ‘boy, are we undervaluing it.’ But it takes a while for people to realize that.”  These opinions seem to have faith in the cryptocurrency as some predictions in the past seemed dismal. Some have predicted that by now the price would be less than ten dollars and even 0, but that wasn’t the case this year.

Bitcoin is doing great in value and is not suffering from a swarm of negative media and scandals, which is a pretty big deal. The currency’s early years have had many ups and downs, but the digital toddler remains strong and will be an adult before we know it. The best currency of 2015 was Bitcoin, trumping the United States dollar and is providing portfolios with better prospects for hedging in this turbulent economy.

There are some good reasons to invest in the digital currency, and there are some unfavorable ones as well. However, the virtual money is continuously strengthening its infrastructure and value as the final days of 2015 proceed. 2016 will bring some new excitement to the crypto-world — that’s for sure.   

What do you predict will happen to Bitcoin in 2016?