Bitcoin Price Analysis: Groundhog

Bitcoin price is failing to make new highs, and the price slam-downs are similarly failing to generate sellers’ participation to new lows. Much like every day during the past week.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

BTCC 1-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

Yesterday’s wave down was strongly supported by buyers at 2580 CNY (BTCC) and $388 (Bitstamp) – and this is exactly where price has returned to around 15h00 UTC today. The succession of lower highs and persistent return to an up-sloping supporting Fib line has created a contracting triangle price pattern in the chart (blue annotations).

The CNY exchanges – particularly BTCC – seem to be regularly reverting to selling behavior, even while the USD exchanges attempt to push higher.

Earlier in the day, the 1-hour 20MA crossed below the 200MA – ordinarily a bearish signal. This cross-over happened in many charts but each failed to decline on the signal. Ignoring this signal signifies consolidation, as confirmed by the corrective triangle price pattern, but unfortunately it does not give us a clue about which direction price will break to at the triangle’s conclusion. Although this analyst favors advance, such speculation is worthless without confirmation in the chart.

Prior to today’s small wave higher, the 1-hour MACD indicator had settled on its lower Bollinger Band while the stochastics were grouped flat at their lower extreme. RSI had reverse diverged on the day’s candle low. This combination of momentum indications heralded a move higher but the puny result – and a return to the Fib line where we started from – is disappointing.

Summary

Price is clearly in a transitional phase – and first needs to show us the larger picture before we can commit to a confident trade. We want to see the outcome of the contracting triangle. If the triangle breaks to the downside, we could be in for a long decline. Hopefully, this consolidative price pattern ends up being a transformation into advance – either because sellers grow tired of hitting the support floor, or because the uncertainties associated with tomorrow’s Fed rate hike and month-end Classic(TM)/Unlimited failure pass as expected.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume