Thursday 17 December 2015

Bitcoin has been the world’s strongest currency in 2015. (And it was in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013.

Top 5 strongest currencies in 2015
(Change against US $ at 12 December 2015 against rates one year ago)
Bitcoin (XBT) +21%
Israeli Shekel (ILS) +2%
US Dollar (USD)
Swiss Franc (CHF) -2%
Japanese Yen (JPY) - 2%
Bottom 5 weakest currencies in 2015Venezuelan
Bolivar (Black market rate) -78%
Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) -34%
Brazilian Real (BRL) -33%
South African Rand (ZAR) -31%
Colombian Peso (COP) -28%
The FX markets in 2015 have been defined by the De-Risking phenomenon: investors have fled from risk into the main hard currencies, namely XBT(Bitcoin), USD, CHF and JPY. They have retreated from VEF, UAH, BRL, ZAR, COP, RUB.
XAU (Gold) weakened somewhat, a signal perhaps that it is losing its safe haven status.
Bitcoin (XBT)
Note that the money used in the world’s freest financial system — Bitcoin — has appreciated the most, and the money used in the world’s most Socialist and regulated economy — Venezuela — has lost the most value.
Bitcoin was also the world’s strongest currency in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. (But in 2014 it was the world’s worst performing currency.)
Bitcoin price appreciation against USD p.a.
n.b. Table shows 37% appreciation (compared to 21% in ‘Top 5 strongest currencies’ table, because base used is 1 January 2015 price of $314 and not 12 December 2014 price of $355.)
Data from here.
Bitcoin Price Index - Real-time Bitcoin Price Charts
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index provides the latest and most accurate bitcoin price using an average from the world's…www.coindesk.com
Data
Currency Data takes from Economist for 10 December 2015.
Economic and financial indicators
The Economist offers authoritative insight and opinion on international news, politics, business, finance, science…www.economist.com
Data for Argentinian Black Market rates from @DolarBlue on Twitter.
Dolar Blue (@DolarBlue) | Twitter
The latest Tweets from Dolar Blue (@DolarBlue). Cotización de referencia del Dólar Blue en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires…twitter.com
Data for Black market Venezuelan Bolivar fromwww.dolartoday.com.
DolarToday | Noticias de Venezuela y Dolar paralelo
¿Deseas conocer la realidad económica y política de Venezuela sin ningún tipo de censura? Te ofrecemos lo ultimo en…dolartoday.com
Graphs
I have graphed the complete results. Venezuelan black market bolivar excluded from graph. Important currencies are in red. (G7 and BRICs and Gold.)
Best and worst performing assets in 2015
There’s an argument to be made that Bitcoin is the top performing asset in 2015. Since 1 January it has increased from $314 to $431, i.e. by 37%. The Economist identified Hungarian equities as the best-performing asset of 2015, which increased by 34%.
Asset performance
Years of ultra-low interest rates mean that investors are eager to alight on any decent source of return. The wise, or…www.economist.com
Big Mac Index
Leaving Bitcoin aside, here is a quick update onThe Economist’s Big Mac Index as it stands at December 2015 by my calculations. It was last updated by The Economist in July 2015, with July 2015 results here:
The Big Mac index
Authoritative weekly newspaper focusing on international politics and business news and opinion.www.economist.com
The results from my own calculations performed on exchange rates as at 12 December 2015 follow.
Most under-valued currencies (cheapest Big Macs) at December 2015
(Under-valuation against $)
Venezuela (black market rate 920 Bolivars/dollar) -97%Ukraine -70%Russia -68%South Africa -66%India -64%
A Big Mac bought in Venezuela with black market Bolivars costs the equivalent of $0.14.
The situation in Venezuela is crazy. There’s an interesting travel account here by The Broke Backpacker who describes his experiences buying money on the black market. And morehere.
How To Change Money in Venezuela
Officially, backpacking in Venezuela should be unbelievably expensive. At the oft-cited rate of 6 bolivars to the…www.thebrokebackpacker.com
Most over-valued currencies (most expensive Big Macs) at December 2015Switzerland +37%Norway +11%Sweden +7%Denmark +6%US 0%
As an alternative to the Big Mac Index,Numbeo provides good data on which are the world’s most expensive and cheapest countries.
Cost of Living Index by Country 2015 Mid Year
By Country : Cost of Living Index, Consumer Price Index, Restaurant Prices Index, Transportation Price Index, Grocery…www.numbeo.com

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